Black Swans and Dragons explain extreme precipitation in Arctic

Black Swans and Dragons explain extreme precipitation in Arctic

September 16, 2022

Scientists revealed a connection between climate change and a cyclonic activity increase.

#ARCTIC. #SIBERIA. THIS IS TAIMYR. An international group of scientists, which includes a senior researcher at the Russian Academy of Sciences Geography Institute’s Climatology Laboratory Tatyana Matveyeva, revealed the connection of climate warming with the cyclonic activity intensity increase in the Arctic region.

Researchers studied the weather stations data in the northwest of the Russian Arctic in the cold period, from November to March, the institute’s press service reports.

The study results were presented in the article Extremums of Precipitation and Their Synoptic Models in the Northwestern European Arctic Sector in the Cold Season, which was published in the Atmosphere magazine.

Scientists have found that super-large precipitation cases in the Barents sea region in the cold period are associated with the horizontal transfer of wet air masses from the Atlantic.

At the same time, polar mesocyclones – air vortices, as it turned out, almost do not affect the extreme precipitation formation.

Recently, scientists began to use unusual terms – Black Swans to extreme values, according to the Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s terminology, and Dragons – according to the Didier Vryunett’s terminology.

Black Swan is a large anomaly, which differs from relatives in power, size, intensity caused by damage. All Swans, including Black ones, belong to the same family in terms of functions. This also implies the same origin of anomalies.

Dragons are called anomalies whose properties do not obey the distribution law, common to other anomalies. Such a loss from a common family may indicate a manifestation of other physical mechanisms, which requires focusing on the Dragons’ properties. Scientists have set the task to find out what atmospheric processes cause their occurrence.

In the context of global warming, which is observed in the Arctic, a cyclonic activity intensity increase can lead to a change in the extreme sediments probabilities distribution – Dragons will turn into Black Swans.

Earlier, scientists warned of new natural anomalies, and also explained the occurrence of an ozone hole over the Arctic. In the spring of 2022, climatologists for the first time recorded abnormal warming on both Earth poles at the same time.

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Text: Angelica Stepanova, Photo: Nikolay Shchipko

September 16, 2022

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