Arctic ocean to absorb less CO2 by 2100
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Arctic ocean to absorb less CO2 by 2100

August 16, 2024

According to scientists, the reason is the melting of permafrost on the coast.

#ARCTIC. #SIBERIA. THIS IS TAIMYR. A team of scientists led by David Nielsen from the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Germany assessed how the destruction of Arctic coasts affects the carbon balance of the Arctic ocean in a study published in Nature Climate Change.

The Arctic is the most sensitive region on Earth to anthropogenic climate change – it is currently warming about four times faster than the rest of the globe, and the Arctic coasts are especially vulnerable: rising temperatures increase thermal erosion of permafrost soils, and melting sea ice allows waves on the ocean surface to further affect coastal erosion.

Observations show that thermal erosion has accelerated across the Arctic, and its average rate is predicted to increase two to three times by the end of this century. However, modern climate models have not yet taken into account the flows of organic matter washed out of coastal permafrost into the ocean.

Now, researchers have included them in a biogeochemical model, recalculated the carbon budget taking into account coastal erosion in 1850–2014, and made a forecast until the end of the century – until 2100.

It turned out that over the past one and a half century, coastal erosion has reduced the efficiency of carbon absorption in the Arctic ocean by 2.5–5.2 million tons per year. In this regard, scientists predict that thermal erosion of sea coasts will reduce carbon absorption by the Arctic ocean by 7–14 percent by 2100.

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Text: Polina Bardik, Photo: Denis Kozhevnikov

August 16, 2024

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