Arctic oil: three scenarios of development

Arctic oil: three scenarios of development

August 12, 2020

The Ministry for the Russian Far East Development considered three scenarios for the oil projects implementation.

The RF Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East has prepared a financial and economic justification for a bill on the mining operations on the Arctic shelf liberalization. According to the new concept, both Russian and foreign companies will be able to work here, Parlamentskaya Gazeta reports.

We are talking about the bill On the specifics of organizing the development of hydrocarbons on the continental shelf of the Russian Federation in the Arctic and Pacific oceans and on amendments to certain legislative acts of the Russian Federation. It is noted that the adoption of the relevant law will not require the allocation of additional funds from the federal budget in 2021-2023.

The Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East considered three scenarios for the implementation of oil projects on the Arctic shelf. The baseline scenario assumes the start of commissioning of the fields in 2035. As a result, the production will amount to 205 million tons by 2040. In turn, the revenues of the Russian budget will amount to 300 billion rubles.

The optimistic scenario assumes that the launch of the fields will begin in 2033, the volume of production by 2040 will grow to 313 million tons of oil, and budget revenues – up to 657 billion rubles.

According to the pessimistic scenario, the start of oil production at the fields will begin only in 2037, the volume of production by 2040 will amount to 63 million tons. In this case, budget revenues will amount to 76 billion rubles.

Text: Victor Tsaryov, Photo: Oil and Gas Information Agency

August 12, 2020

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